Israel PM helped to topple Assad, but it wasn't planned, analysts say
World
Netanyahu claimed the fall of Assad in Syria as a direct outcome of Israel's actions in the region.
JERUSALEM (AFP) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday claimed the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria as a direct outcome of Israel's actions in the region, something analysts in Israel said was only partially true.
Speaking while under growing domestic pressure over the fate of Israeli hostages in Gaza and a corruption trial, Netanyahu said Assad's demise was "a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad's main supporters".
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told AFP that while it was true Israel helped precipitate events in Syria, Assad's fall was an unintended consequence.
"It's obvious that what Israel did has definitely led to that, but I doubt that they had a strategy to do so," he said.
Netanyahu warned Assad on November 27, the day Syria's rebel offensive began, that he was "playing with fire" by supporting Hezbollah and helping to transfer weapons to Lebanon.
"But, he never knew that Jolani intended to start an attack," Citrinowicz said, referring to Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the Islamist chief of the rebel group that led the offensive in Syria.
"And, of course, nobody calculated how the fact that Iran and Hezbollah were so weakened would damage Assad's ability to protect himself and his regime."
Analysts also pointed to Russia, a key military backer, being distracted by Ukraine as a factor leading to Assad's demise, something that was beyond Netanyahu's control.
Aviv Oreg, an analyst at the Meir Amit Center and a former military intelligence officer, said Netanyahu's claims had some legitimacy.
"It's like dominoes... you topple the first and then the second topples and so on," he told AFP.
He pointed to the strikes against Hezbollah, both in Syria and Lebanon, which Israel escalated dramatically in late September, as being a key factor in Assad's demise.
"Hezbollah had many, many troops in Syria and now they have left or moved away," he said.
But he also drew attention to the Syrian rebels' ability to "conduct such an aggressive offensive".
SHIFT IN STRATEGY
Analysts have also highlighted that throughout the civil war, Israel did not support government change in Syria.
Speaking before Assad's fall, Didier Billion at the IRIS think tank in Paris said that Israel had long appeared to "prefer the maintenance" of Assad over the possible "arrival to power of Islamists or jihadist groups".
Oreg said that Netanyahu could not have predicted the consequences for Syria of Israel's actions, but that the prime minister's decision to rapidly escalate the fight with Hezbollah was a "huge success, militarily".
Hezbollah was a key supporter of Assad during the civil war, sending thousands of fighters.
Citrinowicz however said Netanyahu's recent decisions were a change of long-held strategies, forced on him by the surprise Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.
Before the Gaza war, Netanyahu "was so afraid to kinetically interact with the axis," Citrinowicz said, referring to Netanyahu's reluctance to strike Iran's network of anti-Israel militant groups including Hezbollah.
Since the Hamas attack, however, Israel not only fought an all-out war with Hezbollah, but killed most of the group's top leadership, including long-term chief Hassan Nasrallah, as well as several Iranian commanders.
"There was no strategy, but things went so well that, in hindsight, you can say 'amazing strategy'," said Citrinowicz.
