Brexit scenarios: the paths ahead
Britain is left with four general directions.
LONDON (AFP) - With British lawmakers due to vote again Friday on the twice-rejected Brexit divorce deal, what could happen next?
Britain is left with four general directions: back a deal, end up leaving with no deal, negotiate a long delay to work out a new strategy or stop Brexit altogether.
Here is what could happen:
Leave with deal on May 22
British MPs have twice rejected, by overwhelming margins, the draft divorce agreement struck between London and Brussels in November last year.
Passing a new vote by 2300 GMT Friday on the legally-binding agreement -- though not the accompanying political declaration about future relations -- is the only way to secure a May 22 exit.
The withdrawal agreement allows for a long transition period and time for trade ties to be negotiated.
In a desperate gamble to get the deal over the line, May told her MPs Wednesday that she will resign before the start of full-blown trade negotiations with the EU if they back it.
If the vote goes through, May would step down some time in the summer.
Several contenders have been mooted to replace May, among them Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid and David Lidington.
No-deal Brexit on April 12
If the deal is not passed, and no other course of action can be agreed, the default option would be that Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal.
This could generate economic shockwaves on both sides of the Channel and cause severe delays at border points, despite preparations to mitigate these risks.
The European Commission on Monday said this option was "increasingly likely" and announced that its no-deal Brexit preparations had been completed.
May has not ruled out the possibility of a no-deal, though MPs have voted against ever leaving without an agreement in place.
New plan, long Brexit delay
This scenario is murky to say the least.
MPs held "indicative votes" on Wednesday on a range of alternative Brexit options that could rip up the withdrawal agreement and remove some of May’s red lines, such as ending freedom of movement.
But none of the eight options -- which included staying in the EU customs union and revoking the Article 50 departure mechanism altogether -- achieved a majority.
If no course of action can be agreed, Britain could ask EU leaders for another, much longer delay ahead of the current deadline of April 12.
That would mean it would have to hold European Parliament elections at the end of May.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has advised EU leaders that this longer extension should be at least until the end of 2019 and possibly much longer to allow for a proper change in Brexit strategy.
The longer delay would open up options such as holding a general election or, perhaps, a second referendum of sorts.
Britain’s Electoral Commission has budgeted for European elections and could hold them at short notice but May has said it would be "unacceptable" to take that route.
Stop Brexit
This is by far the least likely option but is still a possibility.
Between 500,000 and one million marchers are estimated to have flooded London on Saturday calling for a second referendum on EU membership.
The European Court of Justice has ruled that Britain could unilaterally revoke its Article 50 notification.
General election
If the stand-off between parliament and government persists, MPs or the executive could trigger a general election.
It would reset parliament, and a clear outcome with a government majority could result in a much stronger administration.
The Conservatives are unlikely to want one under May, a departing leader.
And for both major parties, finding a definitive manifesto position on Brexit that all their MPs can commit to could prove a challenge.
