Is Pakistan prepared for a massive Earthquake this year?
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS) report, Pakistan is in the most "active" quake zone.
Dunya News Reports (Yaruq Malik)
ISLAMABAD: Multiple earthquakes have been recorded in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan for over a year now. At the start of the year 2016, strong tremors were felt in various parts of Pakistan including Chitral, Shangla, Gilgit, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Sahiwal and surrounding areas which caused fear among citizens.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recorded the epicenter to be in Jurm district of northeastern Badakhshan province of Afghanistan and its depth was reported 242 kilometers.
Similarly, an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck Pakistan on October 26, 2015 with its epicenter recorded at 45 kilometers north of Alaqahdari-ye Kiran wa Munjan, Afghanistan at a depth of 212.5 kilometers which jolted major parts of the country. By October 29, thirteen aftershocks were reported of magnitude 4.1. The earthquake killed at least 280 people and left 194 injured in Pakistan alone. In Afghanistan, more than 115 people were killed.
The worst earthquake in the history of Pakistan was recorded on October 8, 2005 which jolted the Pakistani territory of Azad Kashmir with a magnitude of 7.6 on the moment magnitude scale. This earthquake was extremely devastating as the depth of its epicenter was just 15 kilometers northeast of Muzaffarabad. The official death toll of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake provided by the government was 87,350 dead. At least 138,000 were reported injured during the massive earthquake and over 3.5 million people were left homeless. According to a statement by the government officials, around 19,000 children died during the earthquake due to the collapse of school buildings in various parts of Kashmir. In the capital territory of Islamabad, the Margalla Towers collapsed killing 73 people and 120 injured.
The International community responded immediately towards the appeal of relief efforts by the government and a total of $5.4 billion in aid arrived from all over the world to assist Pakistan in the wake of the worst natural disaster that the country had seen.
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS) report, Pakistan is in the most ‘active’ quake zone. In a recent report on ‘earthquake and its causes’, the survey reported that the Sub-continent moves northwards and collides with the Eurasia plates at a velocity of 37 millimeters per year. This collision generates mountainous uplift in the Himalayan region causing high rates of seismicity.
Due to this increased seismic movement, the Himalaya earthquakes have caused the maximum number of causalities seen to date with the largest recorded on August 15, 1950, in Assam, eastern India which was measured at 8.6 on the Richter scale.
Recently, the Director General of Pakistan Geological Survey (PGS), Dr Imran Ahmed Khan has feared that an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher might hit Pakistan this year. He said that major cities of the country were located on the fault line that crosses the centre of Margalla hills. He further added that due to climate change all over the globe, glaciers in Pakistan are melting at a faster rate which can cause major flooding in various parts of Pakistan.
In 2007, severe flooding in Pakistan displaced over 300,000 people and affected 2.5 million people in various parts of Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and coastal areas of Balochistan. This was followed up by another flood in 2010 which caused damage to more than 10,000 schools all over the country and impacted the education of 3.5 million children.
Islamabad remains prone to frequent earthquakes and with the recent reports by the USGS and PGS, the capital should not allow illegal construction of high rise buildings that do not come under the legislation of 1961 Islamabad Master Plan.
Doxiadis Associates, the Greek firm that developed the master plan for the federal capital in 1961, knew that Islamabad was prone to earthquakes and recommended an ‘anti-seismic code’ according to which the capital would be built on the land that can absorb seismic energy. This meant that if built properly, most structures in Islamabad would be able to resist strong earthquakes.
Unfortunately, it is obvious that the construction that has been taking place in the federal capital does not comply with the anti-seismic rules suggested by Doxiadis.
The Capital Development Authority seems unaware of this issue and the city continues to construct high rise structures. In the light of recent geological survey reports, experts fear that the capital would not be able to withstand another major earthquake.
