US Fed's Bowman: Latest jobs data stiffens support for three rate cuts in 2025

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's vice chair of supervision, Michelle Bowman, on Saturday said recent weak job data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Bowman was one of two Fed governors to dissent last month against the U.S. central bank's decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range where they have been since December.

Most Fed officials have been more cautious about lower rates given the potential they see that the Trump administration's tariffs could disrupt progress on getting inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal. In recent days, however, several Fed policymakers appear to have moved closer to supporting cuts.

"Taking action at last week’s meeting would have proactively hedged against the risk of a further erosion in labor market conditions and a further weakening in economic activity," Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association. Bowman's remarks leaned even more heavily into her concerns about a labor market downturn than reflected in her post-meeting explanation of her policy vote.

The Labor Department's monthly employment report last Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% -- "close to rounding up to 4.3%" was how Bowman described it Saturday. The report also included revisions to previously published data, showing that job gains slowed sharply over the last three months to a monthly average of 35,000.

"This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand," Bowman said. "My Summary of Economic Projections includes three cuts for this year, which has been consistent with my forecast since last December, and the latest labor market data reinforce my view."
The Fed has three remaining policy meetings scheduled for this year, in September, October and December.

Economists typically point to 100,000 monthly job gains as being consistent with a steady-state labor market, though with big reductions in immigration since President Donald Trump began his second term in January that number is likely lower.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, with the Dow adding nearly half a percent, the S&P 500 climbing more than three-quarters of a percent, and the Nasdaq gaining one percent to notch a record closing high for the second straight day.

Bowman's full-throated support for rate cuts comes as Trump continues to pressure the Fed for easier policy, as he has all year.

A search for a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is underway with several candidates, including Bowman's fellow dissenter Christopher Waller, under consideration. Bowman said on Saturday that she had begun arguing for a July rate cut at the Fed's June meeting.

Trump has said the latest job figures were "rigged" and fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics shortly after the report was published.

Bowman repeated her longstanding view that large revisions make her cautious about taking too much of a signal from job-market reports, but on Saturday she said she sees "the latest news on economic growth, the labor market, and inflation as consistent with greater risks to the employment side of our dual mandate."