OPEC December output rises before new cuts and Angola exit, BofA sees a volatile oil
Business
Cartel’s output is still undershooting the targeted amount by almost 600,000 bpd
LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as increases in Iraq, Angola and Nigeria offset ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance in support of the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.88 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 70,000 bpd from November, according to the survey that tracks a wide array of shipping, flows and production data. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from the same month a year ago.
The boost comes ahead of further OPEC+ cuts in 2024 and Angola's exit from OPEC, which are set to lower January output and market share. OPEC's market share has already been falling due to output restraint and the departure of some members.
In December, the biggest increases of 60,000 bpd came from Iraq and Angola, which both boosted exports, the survey found. Nigeria also shipped more crude abroad without, as yet, beginning oil products output at its new Dangote refinery.
Angola's increase was seen by two sources in the survey as a one-off and likely not sustainable into January, while Iraq still has a sizeable amount of production offline because of the ongoing halt in its northern crude exports via Turkey.
Among those showing lower output, Saudi Arabia trimmed production slightly below 9 million bpd, the survey found, as the top exporter extended a voluntary 1 million bpd output cut to provide extra support for the market.
Iran lowered exports in December, the survey found, with Iranian production falling slightly from a five-year high reached in November. Iran posted one of OPEC's biggest output increases in 2023 despite US sanctions still being in place.
OPEC's output is still undershooting the targeted amount by almost 600,000 bpd, largely because Angola and Nigeria lack the capacity to pump at current targeted levels.
Angola's exit from the group and a new Nigerian quota for 2024 should bring actual output closer to the target level.
The Reuters survey, which aims to track supply to the market, is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
IT WILL REMAIN VOLATILE IN 2024
US oil companies and refiners are likely to face another challenging 12 months in 2024, Bank of America (BofA) analysts wrote in a note on Friday, who expect Brent crude to average $80 per barrel this year.
Crude futures lost over 10 per cent in 2023 in a tumultuous year of trading marked by geopolitical turmoil and concerns about the oil output levels of major producers around the world.
"We expect oil to remain volatile, exacerbated by outsize paper market influence, informed by geopolitics and OPEC policy," BofA wrote in the note.
The OPEC and allies, or OPEC+, is currently cutting output by around 6 million barrels per day, representing about 6pc of global supply.
According to BofA, the bigger challenge for investors this year is to not underestimate Saudi's commitment to oil while acknowledging that Brent could remain in a notional $70-$90 band due to non-OPEC output and an uncertain demand outlook.
The brokerage said absolute valuations for the sector, on average, are less compelling than at any time since Covid, following the strong recovery over the past three years.
BofA, however, sees tailwinds from recent deal making in the largest US shale field, the Permian basin.
It sees Occidental Petroleum, Exxon Mobil and Chevron among the top picks for 2024.
