India's current account likely turned to surplus in Jan-March
Business
It is a result of narrower trade deficit and increase in services exports
BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s current account balance likely turned positive in January-March, marking the first quarterly surplus in nearly two years thanks to a narrower trade deficit and an increase in services exports, a Reuters poll found.
The latest survey of 22 economists showed the current account balance likely recorded a surplus of $3.3 billion, or 0.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year.
That would be a significant improvement from the preceding quarter’s deficit of $18.2bn, or 2.2pc of GDP. Forecasts ranged widely, from a deficit of $5.0bn to a surplus of $7.8bn.
“While we expect the merchandise trade deficit to narrow, led by moderating global commodity prices, the invisibles trade balance should remain steady at previous quarter levels, with a pick-up in services exports,” said Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley.
“On the capital account front, we expect foreign flows to slow. With regard to the overall (balance of payments) … we anticipate the surplus to remain largely steady, similar to previous quarters’ levels.”
The balance of payments was forecast in a surplus of $9.8bn last quarter, the poll showed, compared with $11.1bn in the previous three-month period.
The current account deficit (CAD) was expected to average – 1.5pc of GDP this fiscal year and -1.8pc, compared with -2.0pc in the fiscal year just ended, a separate Reuters poll showed last week.
“With oil prices lower, the trade deficit is likely to shrink, ensuring the CAD narrows further,” wrote Prasenjit K. Basu, chief economist at ICICI Securities.
