Climate change: India wheat crop ravaged by rain, as Feb likely to be warmest on record
Business
Unseasonably warm weather cut output in 2022 and 2023, poor harvest now to force wheat import
MUMBAI (Reuters/Web Desk) – Untimely rainfall and hailstorms have battered winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas in India's main producing areas, delaying harvesting, industry and government officials told Reuters.
Adverse weather could limit growth in wheat production and complicate the government's efforts to build stocks.
This year's wheat harvest is critical for India, the world's biggest producer of the grain after China. Hot and unseasonably warm weather cut India's wheat output in 2022 and 2023, leading to a sharp drawdown in state reserves.
A third straight poor harvest will leave no choice for India but to import some wheat. The government has so far resisted calls for wheat imports – a seemingly unpopular step ahead of a general election early this year.
"The entire wheat crop has been flattened due to heavy rainfall and hailstorm. It was nearly mature, and we could have harvested it in two to three weeks," said Mukesh Kumar, a farmer from Uttar Pradesh, the country's largest producer of the grain.
The hailstorm will not only lead to production losses but will also increase harvesting expenses, as the crop cannot be harvested with a combine and instead need labourers, Kumar said.
[India] Wheat production will certainly be affected, as damage is reported in all wheat-producing states, from Punjab and Haryana in the north to Madhya Pradesh in central India, said a New Delhi-based trader with a global trade house.
The government last week said wheat production could rise by 1.3 per cent from a year ago to a record 112 million metric tons, but traders now say production will be much lower than the estimate.
"Production could be down by at least 2-3 million metric tons just because of one week's bad weather. Hot weather is expected in the second half of March. We don't know how much further stress it would put on the crop," said a Mumbai-based trader.
Like wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas were also cultivated mainly in northern states. Lower-than-expected rapeseed production may force the world's biggest edible oil importer to continue expensive overseas purchases of palm oil, sunflower oil and soybean oil.
Rapeseed production is expected to be at least 5pc lower than what the industry had anticipated before the crop was damaged by rainfall, said Anil Chatar, a trader based in Jaipur in the north-western state of Rajasthan.
"Rapeseed harvesting had begun in many places, but now it will be delayed due to the rainfall," he said.
FEBRUARY LIKELY TO BE WARMEST ON RECORD
Reuters reported last week that the world likely notched its warmest February on record, as spring-like conditions caused flowers to bloom early from Japan to Mexico, left ski slopes bald of snow in Europe and pushed temperatures to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 C) in Texas.
While data has not been finalised, three scientists told Reuters that February is on track to have the highest global average temperature ever recorded for that month, thanks to climate change and the warming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean known as El Nino.
If confirmed, that would be the ninth consecutive monthly temperature record to be broken, according to data, opens new tab from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA will publish final figures for February around March 14, according to its press office.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the record temperatures mean that "springtime comes earlier," according to Karin Gleason, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA said last week.
"I was just in the eastern part of North Carolina yesterday and saw some trees in full bloom with blossoms all over the trees and I'm thinking - It's February. This just seems really odd."
People in Tokyo similarly snapped photos of pink cherry blossoms that bloomed about a month earlier than usual, while jacaranda trees that normally blossom in late March have filled Mexico City with purple buds since January.
As snow melted in Europe this month, ski runs turned to mud and sat idle in Bosnia and Italy, while one French resort rebranded its slopes as a hiking and biking destination.
In the United States, temperatures were up to 40 degrees Fahrenheit (22 degrees Celsius) above normal this week, with the town of Killeen, Texas setting a record of 100F (38 C).
The added heat from global warming wreaks havoc on global systems, helping melt glaciers in the poles and mountains, raising sea levels, and driving extreme weather, said Anders Levermann, a physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Record high temperatures in the summer - now underway in Southern Hemisphere - generally leads to a spike in heat-related deaths, said Jane Baldwin, an atmospheric scientist at University of California Irvine.
"Heat is a substantial silent killer," she said.
Heatwaves hit Argentina, Peru, Brazil, and Chile this month, with the hot and dry conditions also contributing to wildfires near Santiago killing at least 133 people.
Gleason said that the El Nino is expected to dissipate by mid-2024 and could quickly shift to La Nina - a cooling in the Eastern Pacific - which might help to break the hot streak toward the end of the year.
Still, NOAA predicts there is a 22pc chance that 2024 will break 2023's record as the hottest year, and there is a 99pc it will be in the top 5, Gleason said.
