Is earthquake prediction about Pakistan a rumour?
Pakistan
Is earthquake prediction about Pakistan a rumour?
LAHORE (Web Desk) – Zahid Rafi, the director of the National Seismic Monitoring Centre (NSMC), dismissed the recent rumors of an impending earthquake in Pakistan that have been circulating on social media.
In an interview with local media outlet, Rafi stated that earthquakes are a natural occurrence and cannot be predicted with certainty. He added that if earthquakes could be forecast, the devastating loss of life and property seen in recent earthquakes in Turkey could have been prevented. Rafi also noted that mild earthquakes are a common occurrence in Pakistan and will continue to happen.
He emphasised that there is no scientific evidence to support the rumors and sought to alleviate public fears by pointing out that there are no similarities between the fault lines in Pakistan and those in Turkey. In conclusion, Rafi rejected the predictions that a massive earthquake like the one that struck Turkey and Syria will occur in Pakistan in the near future.
In a detailed statement later, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said the devastating earthquakes in Turkey have created panic in Pakistan.
However, the statement said, “the PMD was running its own seismic monitoring network comprising 30 remote monitoring stations and recording earthquakes occurring within and surrounding areas every day. These quakes are of small to medium range magnitudes," while reiterating that "earthquake is a purely natural phenomenon".
"Pakistan and neighbouring countries like Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan have experienced many major damaging earthquakes in the past. These countries are earthquake-prone countries and PMD seismic monitoring network is recording more tha[n] 100 quakes every day”.
The PMD also asserted that connecting the devastating Turkish earthquake to Pakistan was not scientifically correct and said: “The possibility of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Pakistan and surrounding countries is always there but when and where or the timeline of happening is beyond the reach of existing technology.”
It also clarified that the prevailing method of exploring the potential of an earthquake fault is to find the seismic hazard of the areas by using previous seismic data.
"Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications but nothing concerned with the prediction of earthquakes."
Some predictions regarding a massive earthquake in Pakistan have been circulating on social media of a potential earthquake in India and Pakistan made by a Dutch researcher. He uploaded the video on Twitter and it was widely shared by the netizens.
— SSGEOS (@ssgeos) February 2, 2023
The death toll from both countries passes 15,000 and is expected to rise as hundreds of collapsed buildings in many cities have become tombs for people who had been asleep when the quake hit. Meanwhile, thousands of people are still missing.
