COVID-19 economic impact to range from $5.8- 8.8 trillion: ADB
As a share of global GDP, the damage could range from 6.4% to 9.7%
LAHORE (Dunya News) - A recent ADB report estimates the COVID-19 economic impact will range from $5.8 trillion if the outbreak is contained and economic conditions normalize in 3 months, to $8.8 trillion if it takes longer or 6 months to rein in the virus and normalize economic conditions.
As a share of global GDP, the damage could range from 6.4% to 9.7%, excluding the impact of government measures taken to mitigate its impact. About 30% of this global impact will be accounted for by Asia, where in the two scenarios output will fall by $1.7 trillion and $2.5 trillion, which is 6.2% to 9.3% of regional GDP.
The ADB study also notes severe employment effects from the pandemic. Globally, 158 million to 242 million jobs will be lost in the two scenarios (6.0% and 9.2% of total employment). For Asia, the drop in employment will reach 109 million to 167 million jobs—or as much as 69% of total employment losses globally.
Moreover, the pandemic will also likely reverse some of the hard-won development gains that Asia has achieved since the global financial crisis. For example, relative to a scenario without COVID-19, the long containment scenario—where it takes 6 months to contain the virus and normalize economic conditions—will see 56 million people move into extreme poverty, earning $1.90 a day or less, and 140 million surviving on $3.20 a day.
