Rain will not extinguish Amazon fires for weeks, weather experts say
A tract of the Amazon jungle burning is seen in Canarana, Mato Grosso state, Brazil.
BRASILIA (Reuters) - Weak rainfall is unlikely to extinguish a record number of fires raging in Brazil’s Amazon anytime soon, with pockets of precipitation through Sept. 10 expected to bring only isolated relief, according to weather data and two experts.
The world’s largest tropical rainforest is being ravaged as the number of blazes recorded across the Brazilian Amazon has risen 79% this year through Aug. 25, according to the country’s space research agency.
The fires are not limited to Brazil, with at least 10,000 square kilometers (about 3,800 square miles) burning in Bolivia near its border with Paraguay and Brazil.
While Brazil’s government has launched a firefighting initiative, deploying troops and military planes, those efforts will only extinguish smaller blazes and help prevent new fires, experts said. Larger infernos can only be put out by rainfall.
The rainy season in the Amazon on average begins in late September and takes weeks to build to widespread rains.
The rain forecast in the next 15 days is concentrated in areas that need it least, according to Maria Silva Dias, a professor of atmospheric sciences at University of Sao Paulo. Less precipitation is expected in parts of the Amazon experiencing the worst fires, she added.
The far northwest and west of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest will see more rain in coming weeks but the eastern parts will remain very dry, Refinitiv data show.
Even areas with more rain will only get isolated showers, the experts said.
“In some points you could put out some fires, certainly, but these are isolated points, it’s not the whole area,” Dias said.
“The whole area needs it to rain more regularly, and this will only happen further down the line, around October.”
Enough rain has to be concentrated in a short enough period to put out a fire, otherwise the water will just evaporate, Dias said.
She estimated it would take at least 20 millimeters of rain within 1-2 hours to put out a forest fire, with more required for more intense blazes.
The state of Acre, in the west of Brazil on the border with Peru, is expected to get more fire relief from rains than most of the Amazon. The number of fires in Acre has more than doubled so far this year compared with the year-ago period, with 90 fires registered from Aug. 21-25 alone, according to INPE data.
The western half of the state will get 57.6 mm over the next 15 days, while the east of the state will get 33.5 mm, Refinitiv data show.
Rondonia and southern Amazonas state are expected to get 15-29 mm across the area in the next 15 days.
“In some areas it could reduce the fires, not in general,” said Matias Sales a meteorologist for Brazil weather information firm Climatempo.
The 15-day rain forecast is at or below the average for this period in previous years, according to Climatempo.
The eastern Amazon will stay dry over the next 15 days, with little or no rain in parts of Mato Grosso, Para and Tocantins where fires are up 54% to 161% compared with last year.
The dry season, which varies among parts of the Amazon but runs several months up to September, has been particularly dry this year, Dias said. Mato Grosso has been parched by a cold front that hit earlier in the year, she said.
Dias said she hoped the military would help to prevent new fires but putting out existing fires is a tougher task.
“The small fires will be extinguished but the big fires will go on for a while,” she said.
BRAZIL READY TO ACCEPT AID FOR AMAZON FIRES
Brazil said on Tuesday it was ready to accept foreign aid to help fight fires in the Amazon but only if it could determine how it was spent, in an apparent attempt to smooth over a public spat between the Brazilian and French presidents.
The comments by presidential spokesman Rego Barros came after governors of states in the Brazilian Amazon told President Jair Bolsonaro that they needed the money to help fight the record wildfires in the world’s largest tropical rainforest.
“The Brazilian government, through its president, is open to receiving financial support from organizations and countries. This money, when it enters the country, will have the total governance of the Brazilian people,” Barros said.
Separately, a diplomatic source in Brasilia told Reuters the Brazilian government had also accepted 10 million pounds from Britain to fight the fires. Bolsonaro’s press office was not immediately available to comment on the information.
Earlier on Tuesday, Bolsonaro had said he would only consider accepting a $20 million offer of aid from the Group of Seven wealthy nations if French President Emmanuel Macron withdrew the “insults” against him.
Bolsonaro and Macron have been embroiled in a deeply personal and public war of words in recent days, with Bolsonaro mocking Macron’s wife and accusing the French leader of disrespecting Brazil’s sovereignty. Macron has called Bolsonaro a liar and said Brazilian women are “probably ashamed” of him.
The office for the French president declined to comment.
Brazil’s president is finding himself increasingly isolated on the global stage over his response to the blazes, which threaten what many view as a key bulwark against global climate change.
The far-right government’s response could threaten Brazil’s trade deals and powerful agribusiness sector, which is a crucial driver of its recession-plagued economy.
“We think that it’s not the moment to turn down money,” Flávio Dino, the governor of Maranhao state, told reporters after a meeting in which Bolsonaro pledged to agree on a package of legislative measures with the states by Sept. 5 to help prevent the surge in forest fires happening again.
“The anti-environment rhetoric could expose Brazil to international sanctions,” Dino said.
The number of blazes in Brazil has skyrocketed 80% in the year to date compared to the same period in 2018, according to data from space research agency INPE.
About 90 km (55 miles) from Porto Velho, in the Amazon state of Rondonia, a Reuters witness saw houses abandoned due to the fierce forest fires. There were isolated patches of rain on Tuesday, but not enough to put out the fires, he said.
Widespread rain that could snuff the fires out are likely weeks away, according to weather data and two experts.
A local farmer, who declined to give his name, said he expected the fires to worsen next week when the forest is usually at its driest.
PUBLIC SPAT
G7 leaders pledged the $20 million after discussing the fires ravaging an area often dubbed “the lungs of the world”.
The offer, which was made at a summit in France on Monday, has stirred up emotions within Bolsonaro’s nationalist government. Some officials are grateful for the much-needed help, and others view it as a colonial gesture that undermines Brazil’s control of its lands.
Bolsonaro raised Macron’s ire on Sunday when the Brazilian leader responded to a Facebook post that compared the looks of his wife Michelle, 37, with Macron’s 66-year-old wife Brigitte. “Do not humiliate the man hahahah,” Bolsonaro wrote.
Macron, who has accused Bolsonaro of lying about climate change policy, called the remarks “extremely disrespectful” to his wife.
On Tuesday morning, Bolsonaro said he would only countenance accepting G7 money if Macron retracted his earlier comments.
“First of all, Macron has to withdraw his insults. He called me a liar. Before we talk or accept anything from France ... he must withdraw these words then we can talk,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia. “First he withdraws, then offers (aid), then I will answer.”
Barros, the president’s official spokesman, told reporters later that Brazil was open to accepting international aid if it could decide how the money is spent.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday tweeted his support for Bolsonaro, an ideological ally on the environment, China and trade.
The Brazilian president “is working very hard on the Amazon fires and in all respects doing a great job for the people of Brazil - Not easy. He and his country have the full and complete support of the USA!” Trump tweeted.
Bolsonaro responded, also on Twitter: “We’re fighting the wildfires with great success. Brazil is and will always be an international reference in sustainable development.”
The fires are not limited to Brazil, with at least 10,000 sq km (about 3,800 sq miles) burning in Bolivia, near its border with Paraguay and Brazil.
Neighbors Peru and Colombia on Tuesday asked Bolsonaro to attend a meeting on Sept. 6 to discuss the disaster and come up with a long-term coordinated plan to stop deforestation.
Norway’s environment minister on Tuesday urged representatives of oil firm Equinor, fertilizer-maker Yara and aluminium producer Norsk Hydro to make sure their supply chains in Brazil are not linked to deforestation.
