Summary Pakistan's foreign office appears to be confused on the role it has to play
Dunya News Report (Shahzad Badar)
“Bashar al-Assad will leave – have no doubt about it. He will either leave by a political process or he will be removed by force,” Adel al-Jubeir the Saudi Foreign minister said in a CNN interview.
The Saudi’s and Turks have made it clear on several occasions that Bashar Al Assad was not acceptable under any circumstances and have been busy funding the Syrian rebels to defeat him. Armed forces from around 20 countries including Pakistan are gathering in northern Saudi Arabia for “the most important” military maneuvers the “Thunder of the North”. This is the biggest gathering of militaries ever staged in the region. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir has stated that Russia’s and Iran’s efforts to support Syrian President Bashar Assad will not succeed in keeping him in power- indicating that the Saudi military strikes will be targeting Iranian and Assad loyalists.
As coalition partners of the Saudi military alliance, Pakistan’s foreign office appears to be confused on the role it has to play in the Saudi war arena while adhering to its so-called principled stance that Pakistan would not support destabilizing the Assad regime or removing him- this contradicts the Saudi and OIC political objectives in the ongoing Syrian war.
The 20 countries military alliance backed by USA favors dismantling the Assad regime. US Defense Secretary Ash Carter recently has asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to send special operations forces to Syria to help the local opposition fighters in their drive to retake the city of Raqqa, Daesh’s de facto capital in Syria. Saudi Arabia has also confirmed that it had sent aircraft to Turkey’s Incirlik air base for the fight against Daesh militants.
Under the present scenario, Pakistan’s policy towards Syria, a country with which we have little geo-strategic alliance or trade links will come in direct conflict with the Saudi war agenda and policies of the military coalition.
The “Thunder of the North” exercise involving ground, air, and naval forces is a move to send a clear signal to the Syrians and Iranians that Riyadh and its allies “stand united in confronting all challenges and preserving peace and stability in the region”.
The Saudi foreign minister has warned Iran that its policies in the Middle East were not acceptable. The OIC has on many occasions criticized Iran for interfering in Arab affairs.
The Saudi foreign minister and Defense Minister during their high profile visit to Pakistan it seems had succeeded in getting a commitment from the Pakistani side to participate in the coalition forces despite the neutrality mantra repeated by the Pakistani parliament and the foreign office. The people of Pakistan are witness to the secret consent given to the US administration for carrying out the drone attacks while the parliament and senior ministers criticized the US drone attacks.
The new political and military developments on the grounds which are bound to arise as a result of the military forces collecting at a military base in Turkey and Saudi Arabia will change the status quo in the Middle East. With chances of a prolonged conflicting developing in the Syria/ Iraq region the probability is high that Pakistan will have to take a quick U turn and relinquish its please Iran policy. A fanatically adherence with such a policy will surely please Iran but spoil our relations with the OIC countries and damage our economy to a point of no return.
The foreign office has repeatedly made it very clear that it was not in favor of toppling the regime in Syria and that it would not commit troops for a ground engagement unless it is mandated by the UN. Iran, Russia and Hizbollah are among the main partners of the Syrian regime preventing the down fall of Bashar AL Assad and the Saudi’s are hell bent on changing the military equation in Syria, resulting in the ouster of Assad.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia the Syrian Arab Army including Iran and Hezbollah will be fighting a pitch battle if political and diplomatic maneuvering fails to resolve the Syrian crises. The Iranian have already warned the Saudi’s from sending boots on the ground-Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, the commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Air Defense Base, has assured Assad of all help to protect its airspace from the Saudi coalition attacks. The Iranian Revolutionary guards and the Lebanese Hizbollah and Russian’s are already fighting Assad’s battle and the days are not far when the rival forces will clash to ultimately re-shape Syria and territories taken by Islamic State.
The Israeli’s who are the main benefactors of the Syrian crises have also availed this opportunity to create further divisions in the region by proposing a Kurd state which would act as a buffer and allay for it in the Middle East. Israeli Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked has spoken out in favor of an independent Kurdish state besides urging increased cooperation between Israel and the Kurdish people. “We must openly call for the establishment of a Kurdish state that separates Iran from Turkey, one which will be friendly towards Israel,” Shaked told the annual INSS security conference in Tel Aviv. Shaked proposed the new state be founded between Turkey, Israel and Iraq.
Pakistan will have to come up with a more mature rational policy based on its geo-strategic interests and will ultimately have to accept the Saudi or international option of a regime change in Syria. It would be impossible to please both the Saudi’s and Iranian in one go. Our economic interests and political interests are stronger with Arabs compared to our Persian neighbor. The insignificant trade volume and relations with Iran should be the main pillar of our foreign policy in the Middle East. The foreign policy advocating having an egg and omelet at the same time will lead us into a political and economic fiasco.
