LAHORE (Dunya News) – A new five-year economic roadmap has been prepared for Punjab’s economy, outlining an ambitious development strategy aimed at accelerating growth, boosting investment, and addressing long-term structural challenges, according to official documents obtained by media.
The strategy has been developed after the completion of the earlier Punjab Growth Strategy 2023 and is based on detailed analysis of provincial and national economic conditions, fiscal trends, and sectoral performance.
Officials said the plan was prepared internally by the Punjab Planning and Development (P&D) Board’s Punjab Resource Management and Policy Unit under the supervision of senior adviser Dr. Hafeez A. Pasha, following consultations with multiple government departments.
The document highlights Punjab’s dominant role in Pakistan’s economy, contributing around 55.7% to national GDP. The services sector accounts for 60.1% of the provincial economy, followed by agriculture at 24.3% and industry at 15.6%.
It also notes that Punjab contributes nearly 82.8% of Pakistan’s major crop production, while its labour force stands at approximately 48.2 million, with 44.7 million people employed and an unemployment rate of 7.3%.
The strategy points out a slowdown in economic growth, with Punjab’s expansion rate falling from above 5% in the 2000s to below 4% in recent years. Key challenges include stagnant real wages, low investment levels, declining productivity, and high levels of informal employment.
Energy costs have also been identified as a major structural constraint, with electricity and gas tariffs rising by around 590% between 2001–02 and 2024–25, significantly affecting industrial competitiveness.
The roadmap prioritises agriculture, industry, services, human capital development, and employment generation up to 2031, with special focus on southern Punjab due to poverty, climate vulnerability, and agricultural weaknesses.
Industrial growth is expected to be driven by textiles, engineering, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and emerging technology sectors. The services sector strategy highlights IT, digital exports, logistics, and finance as key growth drivers.
The plan also introduces an economic modelling framework to assess the impact of taxation, development spending, energy pricing, and credit policies on growth.
Officials estimate that increasing agricultural investment by just 1% could raise output by 1.803%, while raising agriculture’s development share from 20% to 40% could add 1.29 percentage points to provincial GDP growth.
Under the baseline scenario, Punjab’s growth is projected at 5.51% by 2030–31, while under proposed policy reforms it could rise to 6.53%, with GDP potentially increasing by around Rs1,140 billion compared to baseline projections.