India to receive heavy monsoon rains in Sept. Will it affect Pakistan?

Monsoon is lifeblood of $3tr Indian economy, delivers 70pc of the rain needed to water its farms

NEW DELHI/LAHORE (Reuters/Web Desk) – India will receive heavy monsoon rains at the tail end of the four-month season, the chief of the weather office said on Tuesday, bringing farmers succour after the driest August in more than a century hit some summer crops amid higher food prices.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of India's $3 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70pc of the rain needed to water its farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers.

"Monsoon rains picked up pace after the 3rd or the 4th of this month," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told Reuters in an interview.

"We now expect that the monsoon will be normal or above normal in September."

Current weather conditions indicate that the monsoon is unlikely to start receding in the next few days, Mohapatra said.

"We can see new circulations and low-pressure areas over many parts of the country, so there are no symptoms of monsoon withdrawal at this stage," he said. "It's going to be delayed."

The monsoon generally begins in June and starts to retreat by Sept 17. 

It means delay in monsoon withdrawal may also have effects on Pakistan, producing more rains in the country. But if the monsoon current continues reaching Pakistan with rains in the cotton belt – southern Punjab and Sindh – then it can adversely affect the crop yield.

Read more: Cash-starved Pakistan gets ready for bumper cotton crop

The report comes as cotton arrivals are witnessing a massive surge in Pakistan with the total reaching 3.933 million bales by Sept 15, 2023 compared to the same period last year when the figures stood at 2.187m bales – showing a 79.87pc year-on-year increase.

With cotton-picking starting earlier as we move south in the country, the cotton arrivals in Sindh have jumped by 2.15 times – 2.389 million bales – after the crop was destroyed by the historic floods last year.

On the other hand, the year-on-year surge in the case of Punjab is 44pc after the arrivals totalled 1.544m bales.

As far as India is concerned, Reuters quoted Mohapatra as saying that most rice areas except some eastern regions would get good rains, he said.

Also crucial for crops such as corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, the monsoon is 7pc above average in September but 8pc below average since the season began on June 1.

With a weak start, monsoon rains were 9pc below average in June before rebounding to 13pc above average in July. The monsoon was patchy again in August, with the weather office registering 36pc below average rains last month.

The weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96pc and 104pc of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the season.

The El Nino weather pattern led to poor rains in June and August.

But an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation - a moving system of wind, cloud and pressure that circles the equator - helped bring good rains in July and September, Mohapatra said.

"It clearly shows that El Nino is not the only factor that impacts the monsoon. Other regional variations also play big roles," he said.

INFLATION

The Indian central bank sees stabilising core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, as a sign of easing price pressures in the economy.

Vegetable prices eased in August and brought down retail inflation to 6.8pc. This is likely to continue in September, the Reserve Bank of India said in its monthly bulletin.

"The correction is not complete, and more is expected to drive down retail inflation in its September reading," the central bank said.

It added the correction in prices has moved beyond the three key vegetables – tomato, potato and onion – and the outlook for cereal prices has brightened, "supported by active supply side interventions".

While headline inflation remained above the central bank's comfort band of 2pc-6pc, core inflation dropped below 5pc in August.

The RBI, however, said rising crude oil prices posed a new risk to global financial stability.

The central bank's economic activity index nowcasts GDP growth for the July-September quarter at 6.6pc, slower than the 7.8pc in the first quarter.

This has, however, partly driven a normalising base. "Amidst weakening global prospects, the Indian economy is gaining strength led by domestic drivers," the RBI bulletin read.