Quadrilateral Talks in Limbo Taliban Say No Idea About Talks
The Taliban have killed or wounded more in 2015 than in any other year since 2009
Dunya Report (Shahzad Badar)
Majority of the Pakistani newspapers displayed banner headlines giving us the news that Taliban would be participating in the next round of quadrilateral talks to be held in Islamabad. The optimism generated by the news soon evaporated when the Taliban officials in Qatar denied that they have consented to participate in the talks.
The Taliban not only denied that they had received no news or invitations about the talks – a suicide attack was also conducted by them targeting the Ministry of Defense in Kabul.
The Taliban have not relented in showing their aggressive behavior since the attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar which resulted in the killing of 135 children. As the quadrilateral talks proceeded to the next round the Taliban planned another massacre at the Baccha Khan University in Charsadda killing 21 students.
The Taliban have adhered to their principle of not showing any flexibility. Twenty-five people were killed in two attacks in Afghanistan this Saturday, including one in the capita near the Defence Ministry.
Dr Naeem Wardak, the spokesperson for the Taliban’s political office in Qatar, has sarcastically stated that “they do not know what the four-nation group was talking about”. The Qatar office is officially designated to be responsible for dealing with political negotiations, but it was unaware about the so-called invitations extended by the Pakistani or Afghan delegates.
While the Qatar based Taliban deny receiving any invitations for the March talks, Afghan officials say they have shared with Pakistan a list of 10 Taliban leaders who they want to see at the negotiating table in Islamabad.
Unaware about what the officials of the four countries have been discussing as claimed by Naeem Wardak, it would be hard for the Taliban to jump into the talks and even harder for the Kabul government to sit with the Taliban who have just killed 25 people in a day.
The Taliban have killed or wounded more in 2015 than in any other year since 2009. According to a UN report published earlier this month, there were more than 11,000 civilian casualties in 2015, including 3,545 deaths. The Kabul government appears very weak and the Taliban will not relent in their attacks and stick to their previous demands.
The quadrilateral group members and the international community know that the Taliban insurgents hold the key to implementations of several mega projects- unless peace is restored it would be difficult for gas and oil pipelines to pass through Afghan territory. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline will carry natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and then India. Afghanistan can earn $400 million in transit fee. The pipeline will traverse 134 kilometers area, including Greshk and Washir districts, in Helmand. The Taliban have recently routed the government forces in Helmand.
The Taliban know that their services in reestablishing peace and countering the Islamic state threat in the region will be in great demand and the Kabul army and men from other factions would ultimately come into their folds.
The Taliban attitude towards talks and the ground attacks they conduct daily indicate that they are in no mood to give concessions or beg for a place on the negotiating table.
Political analysts are hopeful that the Army chief’s visit would produce a positive impact and help create a favourable ground for the Taliban to join the talks. Qatar has been hosting the Taliban representatives for the last several years and according to the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the meetings in Qatar focused on facilitation of the reconciliation process in Afghanistan through the Qatar office.
Pakistan has been trying hard to bring the intransigent Taliban back on the negotiation table. Despite the fact that they have presented a list of demand which no one has indicated will be met.
The UN has so far not removed the travel ban on the Taliban nor unfrozen their assets. Their demand for the removal of all foreign troops too is not going to be fulfilled in the near future.
Due to the army chief’s visits to Afghanistan the government of president Ghani has toned down its criticism of the Taliban and have agreed to negotiate with the Taliban referring to them as political opponents instead of terrorists.
Taliban successes in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan have also convinced the Afghan government that peace cannot be achieved without the cooperation of the Taliban factions. Pakistan has maintained good contacts with the Taliban but has lost some of the influence it used to enjoy in the past to convince them to follow Islamabad’s dictates.
According to Pakistani officials “all Taliban groups have been invited to participate in the negotiation process. Taliban’s splinter group, headed by Mullah Muhammad Rasool Akhund, has also been invited to join the negotiation process while Mullah Mansoor head of his group of Taliban has been asked by the Pakistani authorities to rope in all the different factions and prepare them for negotiations.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar the leader of Hezb-e-Islami has reacted positively to the offer of dialogue stating that the intra-Afghan dialogue was the only solution to the problem and only Afghans could determine their future.
Mullah Akhtar’s representative Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai who is leading the political office in Qatar is said to have surreptitiously visited Islamabad this month and held informal talks with the quadrilateral group to lay the groundwork for the inclusion of the Taliban representatives and resumption of talks.
The Taliban have strengthened their positions by defeating government forces in Helmand and know that the government in Kabul will not be able to hold for long even with external help. Afghan government forces are deserting their positions besides selling their weapons to the Taliban.
Political analysts are of the view that the Taliban will strengthen their negotiating positions by launching more military offensives in spring before joining the negotiations. END
