Factors likely to influence Pakistan in the year 2018
Internally, the build-up to the general election and the election itself will shape up Pakistan's socio-economic and political landscape.
By Fuzail Zafar
After seeing off a raucous yet momentous 2017, Pakistan enters the New Year with a lot of hopes and fears, opportunities and threats, and strengths and weaknesses. Internally, the build-up to the general election and the election itself will shape up Pakistan’s socio-economic and political landscape.
On the external front, the processes of changing geo-political environment and regional power equations will continue to unfold, providing Pakistan with myriad avenues of bilateral and multilateral security and economic cooperation.
Against this backdrop, it would be correct to contend that the ball is in Pakistan’s court. By carefully treading a rapturous yet manageable path, the people and the state of Pakistan can certainly surmount the challenges and convert opportunities into sustainable gains.
Nawaz Sharif’s future in politics
Having already been written off from the political equation by the experts, Nawaz Sharif would hope for a lenient outcome in excruciating NAB references so as to cling to the position of ‘supreme leader’ in his party. This will allow him to bring his daughter Maryam Nawaz to the fore, which remains the only way of reinstating Nawaz’s legacy in Islamabad.
However, the more likely scenario will see Nawaz out of politics, either by way of being convicted in corruption references or going into self-exile, which will pave the way for Shehbaz Sharif to contest election as PML-N’s prime minister candidate.
Nawaz’s political future is important as it will determine the nature of the 2018 elections. Political analysts say Nawaz’s presence in the system will make things messier amid fratricidal war of succession within the Sharif family, while his absence will somehow stupefy the electoral milieu.
Tahir ul Qadri’s political strategy
A lot is on stake for the top brass of the Government of Punjab as after publication of the Baqir Najfi commission report, the issue of Model Town massacre has reared its head afresh. Should opposition parties manage to exert enough pressure on the government, and Supreme Court takes up the case as a result, Shehbaz’s bid to run for premier could well be a major blow, rendering PML-N headless.
Model Town case, coupled with Qadri’s ability to devise a potent political strategy, thus, has enormous potential to turn things topsy-turvy in the run up to the summer polls.
PTI’s ability to secure swing votes in Punjab
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has been hoisted as favourite to come out on top in general elections. However, many still doubt PTI’s ability to vanquish PMLN in remote areas of Punjab, where PTI was thoroughly defeated in local body elections, albeit by narrow margins.
If Imran Khan manages to fortify his party in every nook and cranny of Punjab, these narrow-margin defeats could well be supplanted by narrow-margin wins, leaving Islamabad’s power corridors with new faces and new policies in the New Year.
Status of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
Later half of 2017 saw widespread political activism demanding KP-FATA merger. Should it materialise before elections, PTI will be the party that will gain the most out of it, as it is at the forefront of the merger campaign.
However, the ramifications of mainstreaming of FATA are less political and more social, as it will finally unyoke FATA from the yoke of FCR (Frontier Crimes Regulations), a draconian law by modern standards. And will allow people of FATA to contribute to country’s development in a productive and formal manner.
Delimitation of constituencies
Thanks to Census 2017, electoral constituencies are set to be delimited after about two decades. This long due exercise will serve a two-pronged purpose: first, it will force political parties to include in their respective manifestos objectives that are in sync with modern realities. Second, delimitation will open up new horizons for economy to grow, as resulting demographic changes will surely attract more FDI.
PPP’s political plans
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remains a conspicuous political force in Pakistan. However, after 2013 fiasco, it has been relegated to third spot as the biggest political party, behind the ruling PMLN and the PTI. This year too, PPP is likely to concentrate its politics in its stronghold Sindh.
Unless it somehow manages to trouble Shehbaz Sharif in Punjab by virtue of its alliance with PAT, and comes out as a force majeure in Punjab’s electoral politics, the Bilawal-led PPP is likely to cling on to Sindh for another five years.
PPP’s role, however, will be critical as a power broker in post-election scenario, as in case of a close contest between PTI and PMLN, it will be PPP which will be holding the trump card to make or break either party’s fortunes.
Role of a resurgent right wing in electoral politics
Lately, religion-oriented political parties such as Tehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLY) and Milli Muslim League (MML) have been latest additions to Pakistan’s political quicksand. Their buoyance stems from two factors: first, political gap created in Lahore after Nawaz’s disqualification, where MMA secured thousands of votes in NA-120 by-poll, and second, the TLY led Faizabad sit-in, which turned an erstwhile innocuous Allama Khadim Rizvi into a potent political force.
However, some say the rise of right owes to backing from the establishment to further push an already beleaguered PMLN to the wall.
These parties, regardless of the rationale for their revival, will surely play a major role in upcoming elections, where they could break PMLN’s right wing voters into their own favour, thus depriving PMLN of a significant electoral support.
General Elections
General elections are scheduled to be held in July this year. Surely, this will be the event which will shape the contours of Pakistani polity in the years to come. The development agenda of PMLN could well be replaced by a reform policy should PTI come into power. Similarly, in case of PPP’s elevation, expect less infrastructure development.
In a nutshell, a shift in governance and public policy will impact all walks of life. On the other hand, another PMLN win will ensure continuation of existing policies.
US disengagement with Pakistan
The process of Pakistan-US disengagement is likely to expedite in 2018 as part of changing regional power equations. President Trump reviled Pakistan right at the beginning of the New Year over playing ‘double game’ in the War on Terror.
Previously in September 2017, when the United States announced its South Asia policy, ruptures were visible in Pak-US relations, giving credence to the fact that US-India strategic partnership is indeed going to be long-term.
With US, India and Afghanistan on one side and Pakistan, China and Russia on the other, the erstwhile opaque fault-lines are fast becoming vivid, opening new horizons of regional conflict and cooperation. It will be up to Pakistan during 2018 to maximise gains from this precarious yet full-of-opportunities scenario.
Middle East imbroglio
The need for Pakistan to resort to a precocious diplomacy was never as urgent as it will be during the New Year. In view of unprecedented developments in Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the US decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Pakistan ought to conduct its statecraft in the Middle East very carefully.
In all likelihood, Pakistan would strive to maintain her ideal bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia; while a robust connection with Iran will be indispensable for the sake of bilateral as well as regional trade. Pakistan’s diplomatic support to Palestine will remain unfettered, and friendly relations with Turkey will further prosper.
As for confronting the menace of terrorism in the Middle East, Pakistan will continue to provide its expertise to Arab nations; however, Pakistan would remain firm on its stance of not interfering in Yemen war.
Dealing with India and the Kashmir issue
Pakistan’s volatile relationship with India have been deteriorating ever since Prime Minister Modi assumed office. And it hit a new low after visit of Kulbhushan’s family to Pakistan to meet the Indian spy-terrorist. This trend is likely to worsen in 2018 courtesy India’s obduracy in issues such as Kashmir, water, cross-border terrorism and bilateral cricket.
On strategic front, India will double down on its efforts to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through a compendium of methods, such as intensifying proxy war in Afghanistan and Balochistan, sponsoring terrorism in parts of Pakistan, and escalating engagement with Pakistani troops on the Eastern border.
Pakistan would have to up the ante of its diplomacy in the New Year to seek greater support from international community against Indian atrocities in Kashmir. Pakistan will also accelerate work on CPEC with the Chinese support, and efforts to maintain conventional as well as nuclear deterrence to foil Indian adventurism will intensify.
