IMF cuts Pakistan's GDP growth forecast to 3.2pc for FY2026
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IMF cut Pakistan’s FY2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.6%, citing structural weaknesses, while projecting recovery to 4.1% in FY2027
ISLAMABAD ( Dunya News ) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward Pakistan’s economic growth outlook for the current fiscal year 2026, citing persistent structural weaknesses in the country’s economy.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection has been reduced from 3.6 percent to 3.2 percent, marking a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the estimate released in October.
The IMF stated that the downgrade reflects ongoing structural challenges that continue to weigh on the country’s economic performance.
However, the IMF expressed cautious optimism for the next fiscal year, forecasting that Pakistan’s GDP growth could improve to 4.1 percent in fiscal year 2027.
In contrast, the IMF raised India’s GDP growth projection by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining it at 6.4 percent for fiscal year 2026.
The National Economic Council has not yet officially approved any revision to Pakistan’s growth target. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance believes that economic growth in the current fiscal year could approach 4 percent, although the final estimate will depend on second-quarter economic data.
The IMF report also noted expectations of declining global inflation, though it warned that inflation in the United States may return to target levels more slowly. The Fund urged policymakers to rebuild fiscal buffers, ensure price and financial stability, reduce uncertainty, and implement structural reforms to support sustainable economic growth.
