Egypt poll results point to deeply divisive runoff race

The runoff will be held on June 16-17, pitting the two top contenders from the first round of voting held Wednesday and Thursday. The victor is to be announced June 21.Nearly complete results showed the Brotherhoods Mohammed Morsi rising into the second round with a plurality of the votes. Former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq appeared headed into the second round as well though it was not entirely certain. A dark horse leftist candidate was close on his tail for the spot, and still-uncounted votes from the countrys biggest metropolis, the capital Cairo and its sister city Giza, gave him at least a theoretical chance to overtake Shafiq.Morsi and Shafiq are the countrys most polarizing candidates, each loathed by significant sectors of the population. A head-to-head match between them is the most heated imaginable scenario ironically, recreating the pattern of the past three decades, when the Brotherhood was the Mubarak regimes top opponent.The Brotherhood, which already dominates parliament, has promised to implement Islamic law in Egypt, alarming moderate Muslims, secular Egyptians and the Christian minority who fear restrictions on many rights. Morsis first place win was based on the Brotherhoods ability to bring out its fiercely loyal base. But he garnered less than half the vote that the Brotherhood raked in during parliament elections late last year, a sign of public disenchantment with the group.Shafiqs strong showing, in turn, would have been inconceivable a year ago amid the publics anti-regime fervor. He was Mubaraks last prime minister and was himself forced out of office by protests several weeks after his former boss was ousted.A former air force commander and personal friend of Mubarak, he campaigned overtly as an anti-revolution candidate in the presidential election, criticizing the anti-Mubarak protesters. He still inspires venom of many who believe he will preserve the Mubarak-style autocracy that the popular revolt sought to uproot. He has been met at public appearances by protesters throwing shoes.But his rise underlines the frustration with the revolution felt by many Egyptians. The past 15 months have seen continuous chaos, with a shipwrecked economy, a breakdown in public services, increasing crime and persistent protests that turned into bloody riots. That has left many craving stability.In a runoff, the Brotherhood will likely try to drum up anti-Mubarak fervor among the public, while Shafiq will play on fears of an Islamist takeover. Each has repeatedly spoken of the danger if the other becomes president. Morsi has said there would be massive street protests if Shafiq wins, arguing it could only be the result of rigging though there were no reports of major violations in the first round.A top Brotherhood lawmaker, Mohammed el-Beltagy, said Shafiqs showing was a shock.It reflected the ability of the old regime to reproduce itself through its old tools, he said. This represents a complete threat to the revolution and the nation. Shafiq represents the pre-Jan. 25 Revolution state, he added, referring to the date last year when the uprising against Mubarak began.Political analyst Bashir Abdel-Fatah, however, contended that Egyptians dont want an Islamist president they will vote for anyone but an Islamist.The first rounds results showed the drop in the Brotherhoods popularity since the parliament voting because of their reversals of political positions, poor performance in parliament and moves that people saw as hunger for power.Citizens felt that the Brothers are not really carriers of a message but they want to hijack power, he said.By mid afternoon Friday, counting had been completed in at least 25 of the countrys 27 provinces, representing more than half the votes cast. The election commission said turnout in the elections first round was about 50 percent of more than 50 million eligible voters.Morsi was in the lead with 26 percent, according to the independent newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, which was compiling official reports from counting stations.But the race for second place was neck-and-neck between Shafiq with 23 percent and leftist Hamdeen Sabahi with 20 percent.Cairo and Giza, where around 20 percent of the votes nationwide were cast, were likely to be decisive in determining the second-place finisher. The vote counting there was expected to be finished late Friday or early Saturday.Sabahi was a dark horse during months of campaigning but had a surprising surge in the days before voting began as Egyptians looked for an alternative to both Islamists and the former regime figures known as feloul or remnants. Campaigning on promises to help the poor, Sabahi claimed the mantle of the nationalist, socialist ideology of Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Egypts president from 1956 to 1970.The results reflect that people are searching for a third alternative, those who fear a religious state and those who dont want Mubaraks regime to come back, said Sabahi campaign spokesman Hossam Mounis.