Australia's mining boom can end in two years

Mining exports to industrialising Asian nations, chiefly China, helped Australia weather the global crisis without entering recession and prompted Canberra to promise a budget surplus for the 2012-13 fiscal year starting July 1. But Australias leading private-sector budget forecaster Deloitte Access Economics said the surplus plans could be undone as China slows and with coal and iron ore prices dropping.Its June quarterly business outlook said while the mining sector continued to drive economic growth and provide a buffer from problems in Europe and China, it would not last forever. The strong bit of Australias two-speed economy wont stay strong for more than another two years or so, Deloitte said, referring to the mining boom.In an interview with ABC radio, Deloitte director Chris Richardson said demand in key markets for Australian minerals was slowing.China is slowing, India is slowing, Brazil is slowing. And youre seeing those prices come off at the same time as costs have risen in Australia in recent years, he said.It does not mean that the investment boom goes away tomorrow. You know theres a lot of petrol left in the tank for another year or two years still to come. But beyond that the strong bit of Australias economy is starting to be called into question.Trade Minister Craig Emerson insisted a decline in mineral prices had been factored into the budget as well as a drop in capital gains tax revenue caused by a stock market still impacted by the global financial crisis. We are returning the budget to surplus, he said.