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Summary Irans oil exports have reportedly fallen by about 1.4 million barrels per day.
The full extent of the West’s oil sanctions against Iran , which went into effect since past one month, seem to be working better than expected.Iran’s oil exports have reprotedly fallen by about 1.4 million barrels per day, which “substantially exceeds” an earlier estimate of 900,000 barrels, amounting to a 50 percent cut in Iran’s crude exports in the past year, quite a bit steeper than the gradual “20 to 30 percent” decline predicted in June by Iran’s government, which gets about 80 percent of its revenue from oil.At $100 a barrel, that’s roughly $100 million a day in revenue that is no longer flowing into Iran’s coffers. And inflation is starting to take hold—the price of chicken has tripled since last year.Reports estimates that U.S. sanctions have cut demand for Iranian crude by about 350,000 barrels per day, with European Union embargo reducing it by another 600,000 barrels per day.The extra 500,000 barrel loss comes from the fact that Iran can no longer get ships from other countries to carry its oil.India recently approved a government-backed insurance program to cover tankers carrying Iranian crude, but it’s not likely to come anywhere close to providing the $1 billion of coverage typically needed to insure a full tanker.And so Iran’s ability to export its oil now rests almost entirely with its own fleet of ships, which it apparently has been trying to disguise.The world doesn’t seem to be missing Iran’s oil, due to Saudi Arabias s overproducing, while Iraq just passed Iran as OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, and Libya is also back.
