SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near 10-day lows on Tuesday as a deal to end the Middle East war buoyed risk appetite, while the yen was steady after the Bank of Japan raised rates in a widely telegraphed move aimed at inflation risks from the conflict.
U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the war has been signed by the U.S. and Iran. Details have yet to be made public but that didn't stop global markets from cheering and sending oil prices down.
Investor attention this week is on a slew of central bank meetings with the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve also due later in the week to gauge if the end of the conflict has come too late to ease near-term inflation concerns.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high on Tuesday as widely expected, leaving little room for markets to be surprised.
The focus now switches to Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's press briefing at 0630 GMT, where he is likely to reiterate the BOJ's resolve to continue raising rates, but avoid giving explicit hints on the next rate-hike timing.
The Japanese yen was at 160.23 per U.S. dollar, hovering near the 160 milestone that has kept traders wary of another bout of interventions from Tokyo, with even the peace deal unlikely to provide relief for the battered yen.
Yuxuan Tang, head of rates & FX strategy for Asia at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said any dovish read of BOJ communication risks reigniting yen and JGB shorts, making market stabilization efforts increasingly costly.
"That said, the BOJ has not typically leaned hawkish in its communication, particularly given the recent stabilization in inflation and downside growth risks from elevated energy prices."
The Australian dollar was at $0.7061 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates after three consecutive hikes even as inflation remains elevated.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kristina Clifton said the risk for the Aussie is to the downside if the RBA acknowledges growing risks to the growth outlook, prompting markets to unwind pricing for an additional rate hike.
"But we do not expect AUD/USD to test support at 0.6932 unless the US Iran talks collapse and large scale hostilities resume," said Clifton, a senior currency strategist at CBA.
PEACE DEAL LIFTS SENTIMENT BUT DOUBTS LINGER
The U.S.-Iran agreement would extend a tenuous ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively blocked since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.
The currency market reaction was constrained compared to other parts of the market as traders awaited comments from central bankers across the globe this week. The euro was at $1.159, just below the 10-day high of $1.1622 it touched on Monday. Sterling last bought $1.3413 in early trade on Tuesday.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 99.66. The index is up 2% since the conflict first erupted at the end of February in a volatile reaction to a fragile ceasefire and regular tit-for-tat attacks.
"While energy markets moved quickly to price out the immediate risk of prolonged supply disruptions, the path back to normal flows remains far from straightforward," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
Questions around supply chain normalization are likely to keep investors on edge with the near-term pathway for inflation and interest rates still uncertain.
ING analysts said the market reaction has been faster than realities on the ground, and it can be altered by the prospects of a deal.
"A more durable repricing requires safe, predictable and insured shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," they said in a note. "And demand could likely to be higher than usual as depleted reserves need to be replenished. Re-escalation risks are reduced, but not off the table."