DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) — Moving between damp basements and muddy dugouts to fend off constant Russian attacks in the nearly 4-year-old war, exhausted Ukrainian soldiers say their motivation is fortified by knowing they’re fighting for higher cause: the defense of their homeland.
But as negotiators try to hammer out a peace deal, the troops also believe that Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine — either now, or with a fresh army in a few years’ time — no matter what kind of agreement is reached.
And they also say Kyiv must maintain a sizable military to protect the now-800-mile (nearly 1,300-kilometer) front line.
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine are now the main barrier between peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and our bad neighbor,” said a 40-year-old artillery gunner who spoke to The Associated Press near the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. He identified himself only by his call sign of ”Kelt,” in keeping with military protocol, and on condition his exact location is not revealed.
The soldiers expressed strong doubts that Moscow can be trusted to abide by any peace deal. Without substantial security guarantees, such as NATO membership for Ukraine, they and military analysts believe a new Russian invasion with fresh troops and equipment is inevitable.
From a dark, mud-walled trench, where he was sheltering to avoid buzzing enemy drones, Kelt fears any peace will be short-lived.
“This truce will be short-term, to restore Russia’s forces — for some three or five years — and they will come back,” said the former furniture salesman from Kyiv as the sound of booming artillery reverberated around him.
Serhii Filimonov, the commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, worried that a deal would give Russia everything it needed to attack again.
“I think it would be nice for the Russians -- to end the war, remove the sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again,” he said. “I don’t believe there can be peace before Russia is destroyed, or at least the leadership is changed.”
Filimonov described how Russian troops had briefly entered the eastern town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region, but were pushed out. His brigade had managed to hold its stretch of the defensive line but were often let down by neighboring units filled with inexperienced recruits.
The Kremlin on Monday boasted that Russian troops captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Paris that fighting was still ongoing.
A major breakthrough by Russian forces will depend on Ukraine’s ability to increase and sustain its troop numbers, said American military analyst and academic Rob Lee.
“Ukraine lacks manpower, lacks reserves,” he said. “All it takes is for one Ukrainian brigade to really struggle, and then Russia can advance.”
Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser, told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions on the front are made up of only 20 fighters, instead of the usual 400-800.
Even though Ukraine may be mobilizing up to 30,000 recruits per month, many of them find a way out of serving or prove to be unfit to replace front-line troops.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold their ground in places like Pokrovsk, as well as in Kupiansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region — two sites on the front that Russia has been trying to capture for over a year, said Yurii Fedorenko commander of the Achilles UAV Brigade that is fighting in the area.