GENEVA (Agencies) - The United States has set a Thursday deadline for Ukraine to accept its controversial 28-point peace plan, placing Kyiv’s embattled government under acute pressure. US President Donald Trump has described the proposal as “a starting point”, but both the substance and the process have provoked concern in Ukraine, Russia, and many European capitals.
The US peace plan requires Ukraine to cede Crimea and much of the Donbas to Russian sovereignty, cap its military at 600,000 personnel, and constitutionally commit to never joining NATO.
The proposed settlement also offers phased sanctions relief and economic reintegration for Russia, in exchange for a non-aggression pact and “reliable” US-led security guarantees for Ukraine.
Notably, European leaders learned of the plan only belatedly, and it was drafted without Ukrainian input, raising alarm about its fairness and longevity.'
'DIFFICULT CHOICE'
Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky faces what he calls “a very difficult choice”, weighing the prospect of losing vital US support against the indignity of territorial loss and strategic compromise.
“The Ukrainian government will not agree to these conditions,” according to Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign policy committee. “For us, it means surrender,” he says.
Russian officials have publicly welcomed elements of the US draft that align with Kremlin positions but remain wary about enforcement, with the non-aggression pact echoing past agreements that Russia breached.
But EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that “it’s clear Russia wants to cement its gains and restore its position in the global economy, but this plan does not require genuine concessions,” adding that “for any plan to succeed, it must have the support of Ukrainians and Europeans”.
European commentators and senior diplomats have also voiced strong concerns. German political scientist Constanze Stelzenmüller from the Brookings Institution described the US plan as “outrageous”, warning that “If implemented, it would allow Russia to become the apex predator in Europe. It represents a complete degradation of diplomacy.”
The abrupt nature of the US process, and its perceived disregard for European consultation, may weaken the West’s united front in future negotiations.
Experts suggest the plan is unlikely to gain acceptance “without further substantial revision and credible international guarantees”, according to a senior Chatham House analyst.
Chatham’s Orysia Lutsevych described Trump’s plan as effectively a "brainchild of the Kremlin," presenting Russian demands as an American peace plan and resembling a demand for Ukrainian capitulation.
She noted it limits Ukraine’s sovereignty, imposes territorial concessions, and dictates military and political terms unfavourable to Kyiv.
Her colleague Keir Giles characterised it as a transmission of Russian surrender demands facilitated by the US, “unrealistic and unenforceable,” with an inherent risk that Russia seeks to leave Ukraine defenceless for future aggression.
Both stress that meaningful negotiations require Ukrainian and European backing to modify or reject the plan point by point rather than wholesale acceptance.
EUROPE’S COUNTER PROPOSAL
On Sunday, an EU counter-proposal, (as seen by Reuters) unveiled in response to US pressure, avoids explicit territorial concessions, proposing that the lines of contact be the starting point for future negotiations.
It allows Ukraine to keep a larger standing army (up to 800,000), and does not bar NATO membership outright – opting instead for “robust” coordinated security guarantees that could evolve with future alliances and consensus.
Reconstruction would be funded via frozen Russian assets and broad EU market access, aiming for a longer-term, balanced reintegration of Russia into global institutions.
At an EU-Africa summit in Angola, where emergency talks on the US proposal completely overshadowed proceedings on Monday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Russia must be involved in any talks.
"The next step must be: Russia must come to the table," Merz declared.
"If this is possible, then every effort will have been worthwhile," he added.
As the Thanksgiving deadline looms, the prospects for the US plan appear bleak.
Ukrainian leaders, with broad civil society support, remain unwilling to accept deep territorial losses or restrictions on sovereignty.
Russia, while pleased with many provisions, might object to certain security arrangements and demands for military withdrawal and remains sceptical.
"Russia has not so far received the official text of the American version of the Ukrainian settlement plan, which was adjusted during consultations between the United States and Ukraine in Geneva,” according to Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov quoted by Tass news agency on Monday.
EU chiefs hailed progress towards a deal but also said there were outstanding issues to resolve.
"There is a new momentum in peace negotiations," European Council President Antonio Costa said on the sidelines of the summit in Angola.
"While work remains to be done, there is now a solid basis for moving forward," added European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
For his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "tremendous" progress had been made at the talks.
"I honestly believe we'll get there," Rubio said, adding: "Obviously, the Russians get a vote."