ISLAMABAD (Dunya News) - A coordinated strategy on the Pakistan–Afghanistan trade halt could prove beneficial for Pakistan, officials said.
Pakistan’s closure of the Afghan border on 11 October 2025 was not a reactionary step but a measure aimed at reforming the trade system. The country shut all routes that were major channels for smuggling, narcotics, illegal weapons and terrorism.
The trade suspension is expected to have significant and lasting impact on national security, economic survival and the state’s writ. Afghanistan is suffering the most economically, socially and institutionally due to the halt.
Between 70% and 80% of Afghanistan’s trade depends on Pakistan’s roads and ports. Goods reach Afghanistan from Karachi within 3–4 days, compared with 6–8 days via Iran. Through Central Asian routes, delivery may take over 30 days.
For years, smuggled goods entered Pakistan under the cover of Afghan Transit Trade. Pakistan reportedly lost Rs3.4 trillion annually due to smuggling, while goods worth around Rs1 trillion flowed back under the Afghan transit system, compounding losses.
Within a month of the Torkham closure, Afghanistan incurred losses of USD 45 million, and within weeks, total losses across all border points exceeded USD 200 million. Over 5,000 trucks were stranded, and Afghan crops and fruits awaiting Pakistani markets were ruined. Trade costs via Iran surged by 50–60%, adding USD 2,500 to each container.
Medicine supplies to Afghanistan also suffered, as over half of its pharmaceuticals are imported through Pakistan. Alternate routes are slow, costly and unsafe, and Afghanistan’s fragile economy cannot absorb these shocks.
With smuggling halted, more than 200,000 families dependent on illicit trade, backflow and under-invoicing lost their livelihoods.
For ordinary Pakistanis, the Afghan trade suspension has minimal impact, as the smuggled goods entering Pakistan were mostly luxury items, not essentials.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has access to CPEC and a direct land route with China. The trade halt is expected to dismantle smuggling networks and curb the flow of weapons and narcotics.
Trade previously concentrated in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces (such as Paktia) is likely to shift towards other regions and routes including Iran and Central Asia, promoting economic diversification and inclusivity within Afghanistan.
Over the long term—5 to 10 years—the move is expected to bring benefits to Pakistan as well.
Officials said the Afghan Taliban must now choose whether to shelter terrorists or join Pakistan in the journey towards mutual development.