SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday as expected, but cautioned that a further increase could not be ruled out given inflation was still too high and it needed to see more evidence that price pressures were cooling.
The hawkish tone of the central bank's statement boosted the Australian dollar and saw futures push out the likely timing of a first easing to later in the year.
Wrapping up its February policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent, having last lifted them by a quarter point in November.
Markets had wagered heavily on a steady outcome given inflation had eased by more than expected in the fourth quarter, but the RBA statement suggested it was still not confident that inflation was on a sustainable path towards its 2pc-3pc target.
"While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high... The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range," said the RBA Board in a statement.
Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, said the comments were "slightly more hawkish" than anticipated particularly given "the weakness in recent inflation data."
"We continue to focus on weaker [domestic] consumption, elevated debt servicing costs and signs of easing in the job market as pointers towards a more accommodative stance going forward."
The RBA statement helped the Aussie nudge up 0.42pc to $0.651, having hit an 11-week low of $0.6469 overnight.
The futures now see a 36pc probability of a move down in rates in June, with August at 76pc. A quarter point cut was not fully priced in until September.
They also imply only a modest 40 basis points for the year, down from 46 basis points before the RBA announcement.
The RBA has jacked up interest rates by 425 basis points since May 2022 to tame stubbornly high Australia inflation. Although inflation fell to a two-year low of 4.1pc in the fourth quarter and has moved some way off the peak of 7.8pc from late 2022, it is still well above the central bank's 2-3pc target band.
However, the economy has slowed to a crawl, the red-hot labour market has started to loosen and consumer spending remained soft amid the costs of living pressures and high mortgage rates.
Taking off the pressure to hike is the drastic change in overseas monetary policy outlooks since the RBA last met in early December. Yet, over in the United States, economic resilience and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary have led markets to push back the start of US rate cuts from March to later in the year.
"The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, and a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out," the RBA said in its statement.