Far-right, conservatives gain in German votes in blow to Scholz

Far-right, conservatives gain in German votes in blow to Scholz

BERLIN (Reuters) - Voters dealt the parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's fractious centre-left coalition a sharp rebuke in the key states of Bavaria and Hesse on Sunday, with economic woes and migration fears boosting the opposition conservatives and the far right.

The vote saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party bursting out of its post-industrial strongholds in eastern Germany to score its best-ever result in a western state, with polls showing it on course to be second-largest party in Hesse, home to the glittering towers of financial capital Frankfurt.

The results in states which together account for around a fifth of the German population may well heighten tensions in Scholz's awkward federal coalition of his Social Democrats, the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), analysts say.

The coalition has been blighted since it took office in late 2021 by infighting and an inability to find common ground, with Scholz accused of failing to show the leadership needed to impose order and tackle crises ranging from war in Ukraine to the green transition.

"Rarely has a government been given such a comprehensive slapdown," said senior CDU legislator Jens Spahn. "And rarely has it been so clear: whether on migration, the economy or climate policy, people want a different politics."

In Hesse, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) were forecast to get 35% of the vote for the state legislature, likely allowing them to govern for another term.

The SPD's 15.5% was a personal blow to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, whose campaign to head the state was dogged by criticism of her handling of a surge in irregular migration.

Meanwhile the CDU's sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), which has run Bavaria since 1957, was projected to win 36.8% of the vote in that state - its worst result since 1950, although only a fraction below 2018's.

The failure of the far-left Left party to reach the 5% threshold necessary to remain in the state parliament in Hesse added to the broader shift to the right.

COALITION DRUBBING

The CSU is expected to continue its coalition with the populist Free Voters on 14.3. They and the AfD were the only parties to make gains in the Bavaria election.

All the parties in Scholz's coalition did worse in both states than five years ago, with the FDP likely to fail to reach the 5% threshold to enter Bavaria's parliament.

The AfD was on track for 16.9% in Hesse and 15.5% in Bavaria, compared with 13.1% and 11.6% respectively in 2018, confirming the political ascendancy of a party created just 10 years ago.

The nationalist, anti-migrant AfD is currently polling in second place nationwide up from fifth in the 2021 election, in a shift that could make it harder for Germany to form stable majorities given that other parties refuse to work with it.

Approval of Scholz's government remains at its lowest level since it took office in December 2021, according to the ARD-Deutschland Trend survey, with four out of five Germans dissatisfied with its work.

"We are right in the middle of the federal legislative term, where it is not unusual for the government to have low approval ratings and lose state elections," said Philipp Koeker, political scientist at the University of Hanover.

In response, coalition parties are likely to continue to follow increasingly separate paths to focus on issues relevant to their core electorate, he said, while all taking a tougher stance on migration.