UK mortgage rates hit 15-year high after surpassing 'mini-budget' peak

News comes as food inflation continued squeezing British consumers in June

LONDON (Reuters/Web Desk) – A key British mortgage rate hit a 15-year high on Tuesday when it rose above the levels reached in the aftermath of last year's "mini-budget" crisis – coinciding with a survey that showed the effects of the high food inflation.

The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate hit 6.66 per cent, narrowly exceeding the 6.65pc touched on Oct 20 and the highest since August 2008 when it stood at 6.94pc.

Britain's housing market activity staged a recovery in early 2023 from the turmoil triggered by the unfunded tax-cutting plans of former prime minister Liz Truss. But homeowners and buyers have faced renewed mortgage pain in recent months.

Fixed mortgage deal rates have risen rapidly in recent weeks as stickier-than-expected consumer price inflation, which held at 8.7pc in May, pushed up bond yields and increased market bets on the BoE's benchmark rate peaking at 6.5pc, up from 5pc now.

Swap rates, a key measure lenders use to determine the cost of mortgage borrowing, have also soared. Two-year swaps jumped by 0.89 percentage points over the course of June.

The surge has prompted major mortgage lenders to repeatedly reprice home loan offerings. However, most households have yet to face the impact of higher borrowing costs as they are still locked in to previous deals.

The five-year rate, which peaked last October at 6.51pc, rose to 6.17pc on Tuesday.

FOOD INFLATION

A British Retail Consortium survey showed on Tuesday that unusually hot weather boosted sales of sun screen and barbecue food in Britain last month, but consumers spent less on big-ticket items as high food prices continued to squeeze their budgets.

The BRC said retail spending increased by 4.9pc in annual terms in June – roughly in line with its average this year, though stronger than May's 3.9pc and a 1.0pc drop a year earlier.

Last month was Britain's hottest June since modern records began, and the BRC said this drove sales of swimwear, beach towels and outdoor games as well as garden furniture.

However, the BRC data is not adjusted for inflation, so last month's increase in spending still reflects a fall in the volume of goods purchased.

Previous BRC data showed prices among its members were up by an annual 8.4pc on average in June, rising to 14.6pc for food, despite a drop in the cost of some food products.

Over the second quarter as a whole, food spending was up 9.8pc while non-food spending grew just 0.3pc. Paul Martin, UK head of retail at accountants KPMG, who sponsor the data, said stubborn food inflation was reducing shoppers' ability to spend on non-essential items.

"Consumers have so far remained resilient, but the triple threats of further interest rate hikes, resolute double digit food inflation and an economy recovering at slower rate than predicted, could hamper a return to much needed profitable growth across the retail sector," Martin said.

Official figures showed consumer price inflation held at 8.7pc in May, and financial markets are betting the Bank of England will raise rates as high at 6.5pc early next year, up from 5pc now.

The BRC said like-for-like retail sales - a measure favoured by equity analysts which adjusts for changes in retail space - were 4.2pc higher on the year in June, up from 3.7pc in May.

Separate figures from Barclays on Tuesday showed consumer spending on debit and credit cards rose 5.4pc year-on-year in June, with spending on groceries up 9.5pc, the most since February 2021.

However, Will Hobbs, chief investment officer at Barclays' UK wealth management division, said Britain's economy remained in a precarious spot.

"Inflation contagion is perhaps furthest advanced here," Hobbs said. "There is more work for central bankers yet, even as the creaks and strains on the mortgage and other borrowings become increasingly audible."