'Rajnath Singh's remarks on NFU reflect India's 'Full Spectrum Conflict' strategy against Pakistan and China'

The CISS focuses its research on the strategic balance in the region.

(Web Desk) – Nuclear policy experts have warned that an alteration in India’s nuclear policy of No-First Use (NFU) could further intensify arms race in South Asian region.

The Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) – an Islamabad-based think-tank that focuses its research on the strategic balance in the region – held a roundtable conference on Monday in the context of recent hints from the Indian leadership that it could end its policy of No-First Use (NFU) of nuclear weapons.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh amidst simmering tensions between nuclear-armed arch-rivals Pakistan and India, in the aftermath of annexation of occupied Kashmir, speculated about a potential change in India’s NFU policy.

Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, during his visit to Pokhran, the site of India’s nuclear tests, said: “Till today, our nuclear policy is ‘No First Use’. What happens in future depends on the circumstances.” He later reaffirmed that view through a tweet.

The CISS Conference examined the probability of India shifting its declared stance on the NFU, the factors prompting New Delhi to rush towards that direction, and its implications for the strategic stability of the region.

CISS Executive Director Ali Sarwar Naqvisaid: “Such doctrinal developments are alarming for India’s main adversaries, especially Pakistan, which would be compelled to take counteractive measure and increase sufficiency level to ensure the credibility of its deterrence posture.”

He pointed out  the shifts in India’s NFU Declaration ever since the draft nuclear doctrine was revealed in 1999. In the first instance, a caveat was added in 2003 stating that nuclear weapons can be used in case of chemical and biological weapons attack against India or Indian forces anywhere.

Later in 2010, Indian National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon rephrased NFU to ‘no first use against non-nuclear weapon states,’ and then in 2013 Convener of India’s National Security Advisory Board Shyam Saran said India would retaliate massively irrespective of size of any nuclear attack against it.

Importantly, the central line of reasoning of the meeting was that ending NFU would be followed by India increasing its nuclear arsenal, which would, in consequence, be followed by other countries in the region revising their minimum numbers to keep deterrence credible.

“Such doctrinal developments are alarming for India’s main adversaries, especially Pakistan, which would be compelled to take counteractive measure and increase sufficiency level to ensure the credibility of its deterrence posture,” Naqvi observed.

Senior Research Fellow Dr Mansoor Ahmed said, “India’s apparent shift in its NFU flows from the military technologies that it has acquired and developed over the past two decades.” He believed that the Indian defense minister’s statement reflected his government’s “confidence in the new capabilities” that were geared towards an “escalation dominance strategy” being tailored for a “Full Spectrum Conflict” with Pakistan and China.

Dr Mansoor warned that these developments could incentivise greater investments in conventional and strategic force modernisation. He said this could result in “more warheads and delivery systems.”

“India feels that now is an opportune time to maximise the leverage that it derives from its increasing diplomatic and economic influence at the world stage, which would serve its geo-strategic ambition,” Dr Mansoor maintained.

Senior Research Fellow at CISS retired Brig Dr Naeem Salik said the Indian defence minister’s statement could not have come as a surprise for Pakistan because it never believed in India’s NFU declaration. He highlighted the fact that Indian leaders had been talking about abandoning NFU for some time.